Bihar Exit Poll: Mahagathbandhan projected to form next govt; RJD single largest party

With the crucial Bihar state assembly election results slated on Tuesday - 10 November, the Republic Jan Ki Baat Exit Polls have predicted the RJD-Congress-Left 'Mahagathbandhan trumping the JDU-BJP-HAM-VIP (NDA) alliance, ushering Tejashwi Yadav's maiden CM term. The Nitish Kumar-led NDA combination has been projected to not cross the halfway mark in the 243-seat assembly, as RJD is projected to emerge as the single largest party. Incumbent CM Nitish Kumar, who seeks a fourth consecutive term, faces a formidable battle from three coalitions and Chirag Paswan's LJP - RJD-Congress-Left's 'Mahagathbandhan', the RLSP-BSP-AIMIM- SJDD-SBSP's 'Grand Democratic Secular Front' and the JAP-ASP-SDP-BMP's 'Progressive Democratic Alliance'.

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Bihar Exit polls:

Seat share:

The Mahagathbandhan is projected to win 118-138 seats defeating the NDA which is projected to win 91-117 seats, LJP is projected to win 5-8 seats, while others are projected to win 3-6 seats. As per Republic Jan Ki Baat Exit Polls, the party-wise projections stand as such - RJD (79-91 seats), Congress (24-30 seats), Left (15-17 seats), BJP (60-75 seats), JDU (31-42 seats). While AIMIM is projected to win one seat, HAM and VIP are set to not win a single seat.

• NDA: 91 to 117 seats
• Mahagathbandhan: 118 to 138 seats
• LJP: 5 to 8 seats
• Others: 3 to 6 seats

Party-wise projections:

Mahagathbandhan:

• RJD: 79-91 seats
• Congress: 24-30 seats
• Left: 15-17 seats [CPI(ML)- 12-14 seats, CPI(M)- 2 seats, CPI- 1 seat]

NDA:

• BJP: 60-75 seats
• JDU: 31-42 seats
• VIP: 0
• HAM: 0

Remaining parties:

• LJP: 5-8 seats
• AIMIM: 1 seat
• Others: 3-6 seats

Bihar Elections 2020 Exit Poll: Tejashwi-led RJD projected to be the single-largest party

Vote Share:

With RJD set to be the single-largest party, the Mahagathbandhan is projected to win 40-43% of the votes, while NDA is projected to win 37-39% of the votes. LJP is projected to win 7-9% of the votes, while others are projected to win 8-11% of the votes. Furthermore, the partywise vote-share is projected as such - RJD (24-26%), Congress (8-9%), Left (6.5 -8%), BJP (18-20%), JDU (15 -16%), HAM (1.5-2%), VIP (2%)

• NDA: 37-39%
• Mahagathbandhan: 40-43%
• LJP: 7-9%
• Others:8-11%

Party-wise projections:

Mahagathbandhan:

• RJD: 24-26%
• Congress:  8-9%
• Left:  6.5-8%.  

NDA:

• BJP: 18-20%
• JDU: 15 -16%
• HAM: 1.5-2%
• VIP: 2%

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2015 Bihar elections results:

Bucking the Modi wave across India, the Mahagathbandhan - then comprising of RJD, JDU and Congress won 178 seats - ushering Nitish Kumar's third term as CM. On the other hand, the NDA - comprising of BJP, LJP, RLSP and HAM won only 58 seats, while others won 7 seats. Furthermore, RJD emerged as the single-largest party winning 80 seats and 18.4% votes, followed by JDU winning 71 seats and 16.8% votes. Meanwhile forming the prime Opposition, BJP won 53 seats and 24.4% votes while Congress won 27 seats and 6.7% votes. This alliance did not last for more than two years, when Nitish Kumar demanded then-deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav's resignation after he was accused of corruption. On 27 July 2017, Nitish Kumar returned to his old ally - BJP and was sworn in as CM with BJP's Sushil Modi as his deputy CM.

Poll Campaign

The incumbent CM Nitish Kumar banking on his 15-year consecutive term, eyeing another term, has flaunted his '7 promises', listing the various schemes and development work carried out by his government in the past tenures. BJP, on the other hand, banking on the Modi cabinet's work in the past six years has promised free COVID-19 vaccine, 19 lakh jobs. On the other hand, the Mahagathbandhan has promised '10 lakh government jobs' in its CM hopeful - Tejashwi Yadav's first cabinet meeting, reopen Bihar's special status demand, annul Centre's farm laws and not levy 'false cases' on protestors.

During his rallies, CM Nitish Kumar has lashed out at Lalu Yadav's '15-year Jungle raj', often comparing the ineffective law and order situation, migration, lack of schools, roads, hospitals. He also dropped a bombshell on the last day of the campaign saying, 'This is my last election'. Tejashwi -who eyes his maiden term - stepping out of his father Lalu Yadav's shadow, has referred to Nitish Kumar as 'tired', lashing out at the CM's mismanagement of the COVID-19 situation, lack of empathy to stranded migrants due to lockdown, unemployment, lack of basic amenities. 

Chirag Paswan- who split from the NDA due to 'ideological differences with JDU' - has taken a bizarre pro-BJP, anti-Nitish stance. Paswan - who is still reeling from his father Ram Vilas Paswan's untimely death - has vowed to send 'corrupt' CM and his officials for alleged corruption in Kumar's 'Saath Nischay' scheme. He has also called himself 'Modi's Hanuman', often praising the PM. Congress- which has backed Tejashwi, has continued to attack PM Modi over the Centre's various decisions. The campaign was the first where ex-CM Lalu Yadav was absent in over 40 years, as he remains in Dumka jail, convicted in the fodder scam case.

The BJP is contesting on a seat-sharing formula of 121-122 seats with the JDU and Mukesh Sahni of Vikasheel Insaan party and Jitan Ram Manjhi of HAM(S), while LJP will contest solo. Mahagathbandhan comprising of Congress and three left parties have are contesting on seat-sharing formula of 144-70-29 seats respectively. The other two coalitions have projected Pappu Yadav and Upendra Kushwaha as its CM pick respectively countering Mahagathbandhan's pick - Tejashwi Yadav and NDA's pick - incumbent CM Nitish Kumar.

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Key poll issues:

Unemployment: As per news agency ANI, a Periodic Labour Force Survey has stated that over 40 percent of Bihar youth are unable to find any source of income. A Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) report said Bihar's unemployment rate increased 31.2 percentage points in April 2020 — rising up to 46.6 percent. The CMIE survey said the unemployment rate in Bihar rose from 1.6 percent in April 2017 to its current rate. This has been the biggest issue that has been the focus of all parties.

Migration: After the nationwide lockdown was imposed due to the Coronavirus pandemic, migrant workers from Bihar had to return to their hometowns. While many returned to the cities, several workers have remained in Bihar, hoping the state government to provide them jobs - as promised by the government.

Tackling COVID-19 crisis: Incumbent CM Nitish Kumar and PM Modi has claimed that if the NDA government would not have taken timely measures, there would have been a huge number of deaths due to COVID. However, a visit to the Seemanchal (areas of Purnea, Kishanganj, Darbhanga) in September showed a gross violation of COVID-19 norms and poor condition of the COVID hospitals. Several top cabinet ministers too have been infected during poll rally, leading to heavy criticism of poor testing by Tejashwi Yadav. Contrary to criticism, Bihar Health Minister Mangal Pandey said that the recovery rate in the state has touched 94.24%, "which is the highest among all states of India".

Law and order: NDA leaders including PM Modi have slammed the Lalu Yadav family for looting the people of Bihar, during Lalu Yadav's term known as 'Jungle raj'. A public survey conducted by the Centre for the Studies of Developing Societies (CSDS) earlier this year, reads that 34 percent of the people surveyed believe that the police themselves violate the rules and regulations. A total of 77 percent hold an opinion that there is a nexus between the political leaders and police, leading to a low degree of trust of the public in the police department.