Coronavirus: ICMR predicts delay in 'community transmission' by 3 weeks due to quarantine

Amid nationwide lockdown for Coronavirus, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) on Monday, has published a study warning about community transmission of pandemic in coming few weeks. study which does mamatical modeling of Coronavirus spread in India, states that community transmission of disease may take place from a minimum of 20 days to a few months. Currently, total number of cases in India stands at 509, with 9 deaths.

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ICMR warns of community transmission

study published in Indian Journal of Medical Research, states that by quarantining of individuals with symptoms of COVID-19 can delay introduction of virus into community by three days to three weeks  - which in turn reduces cumulative cases by 62%  and peak number of cases by 89%, in an optimistic scenario. In a pessimistic scenario, assuming that asymptomatic cases are as infectious as symptomatic ones, study suggests that projected impact falls at 2%. study states that while near-complete capture of COVID-19 cases at airport arrival screening is t feasible, 90% diagsis among asymptomatic travellers is possible through isolation and quarantine of all arrivals from listed countries where pandemic has affected a higher number of individuals.

study adds, "Acting alone, however, such measures would be insufficient to delay outbreak by weeks or longer. Once virus establishes transmission within community, quarantine of symptomatics may have a meaningful impact on disease burden. se model projections are subject to substantial uncertainty and can be furr refined as more needs to be understood about rate at which infection of this vel virus transmits among susceptible individuals".

Here is link of study: ICMR Coronavirus mamatical model

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Coronavirus crisis in India

As of date, 509 positive cases have been reported of pandemic Coronavirus (COVID-19) with Maharashtra reporting highest at 106. Nine deaths have been reported till date. India has suspended all visas and barred travel from Afghanistan, Philippines, EU, UK, China, Malaysia and mandatory 14-day quarantine from several or countries and shut down over 32 states and Union territories.

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India has also closed India-Pakistan border and restricted passenger movement at border with Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, and Myanmar.   government is monitoring all suspected cases and issued preventive advisories with states declaring disease an epidemic shutting down all educational institutions, monuments, parks, gyms, swimming pools, pubs and banning large garings. All domestic airplanes and trains have ceased operation. Visit official government here: MINISTRY OF HEALTH & FAMILY WELFARE

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