Coronavirus: ICMR predicts delay in 'community transmission' by 3 weeks due to quarantine

Amid the nationwide lockdown for Coronavirus, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) on Monday, has published a study warning about community transmission of the pandemic in the coming few weeks. The study which does mathematical modeling of the Coronavirus spread in India, states that community transmission of the disease may take place from a minimum of 20 days to a few months. Currently, the total number of cases in India stands at 509, with 9 deaths.

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ICMR warns of community transmission

The study published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research, states that by quarantining of individuals with symptoms of COVID-19 can delay the introduction of the virus into the community by three days to three weeks  - which in turn reduces cumulative cases by 62%  and the peak number of cases by 89%, in an optimistic scenario. In a pessimistic scenario, assuming that the asymptomatic cases are as infectious as the symptomatic ones, the study suggests that the projected impact falls at 2%. The study states that while the near-complete capture of COVID-19 cases at airport arrival screening is not feasible, 90% diagnosis among asymptomatic travellers is possible through isolation and quarantine of all arrivals from the listed countries where the pandemic has affected a higher number of individuals.

The study adds, "Acting alone, however, such measures would be insufficient to delay the outbreak by weeks or longer. Once the virus establishes transmission within the community, quarantine of symptomatics may have a meaningful impact on disease burden. These model projections are subject to substantial uncertainty and can be further refined as more needs to be understood about the rate at which infection of this novel virus transmits among susceptible individuals".

Here is the link of the study: ICMR Coronavirus mathematical model

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Coronavirus crisis in India

As of date, 509 positive cases have been reported of the pandemic Coronavirus (COVID-19) with Maharashtra reporting the highest at 106. Nine deaths have been reported till date. India has suspended all visas and barred travel from Afghanistan, Philippines, EU, UK, China, Malaysia and mandatory 14-day quarantine from several other countries and shut down over 32 states and Union territories.

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India has also closed the India-Pakistan border and restricted passenger movement at the border with Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, and Myanmar.  The government is monitoring all suspected cases and issued preventive advisories with states declaring the disease an epidemic shutting down all educational institutions, monuments, parks, gyms, swimming pools, pubs and banning large gatherings. All domestic airplanes and trains have ceased operation. Visit the official government here: MINISTRY OF HEALTH & FAMILY WELFARE

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