National Approval Ratings: In Bihar, relief for Nitish Kumar as JD(U)-BJP alliance projected to win big, while Lalu-Congress projected to lag behind

Bihar is a state where there has been a tremendous amount of political flux over the last 5 years, especially in terms of the alliance dynamics concerning the principal parties, BJP, Congress, JD(U), RJD, as well as the smaller parties like LJP and RSLP. How is this likely to impact the election scenario ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections? Republic TV-CVoter's National Approval Ratings for November have revealed the relevant projections.

Here is the National Approval Rating for Bihar -- essentially, who would win if elections were to be held in November for the state's 40 seats:

Remarkably, the NDA is projected to make further strides as compared to 2014 when it won 31 seats, gaining 3 more for a seat share of 34. It is important to note here that the 2014 NDA comprised the BJP, LJP and RSLP, whereas now it has also added Bihar CM Nitish Kumar to its fold. The UPA, comprising Congress, Lalu Prasad's RJD and the NCP, had won 7 seats in 2014 (Cong - 2, RJD - 4, NCP - 1), but is projected to win 6 at this juncture (Congress - 1, RJD - 5).

Breaking the coalitions down, in the NDA, the BJP is projected to win 15 seats, while the remaining, including JD(U), LJP and RSLP are projected to manage the remaining 19. For the UPA, the Congress is projected to be winning just one seat, while the RJD is projected to rack up the remaining 5 seats.

In terms of vote share, the NDA's projection is 47.7%. In 2014, the BJP had accrued 39.2% votes while the JD(U) had won 15.5% vote share. The UPA, meanwhile, is projected to garner a vote share of 35.3% in comparison to 30.3% in the 2014 elections.

In comparison to the October National Approval Ratings:

The NDA's projected gains (to 34 seats) over the 31-seat share in 2014 is actually a new development, as in the projections a month earlier, the alliance was projected to win 31 seats. The loser, in this case, is the UPA, which was projected to win 9 seats in the previous edition, specifically, the RJD, whose projection has fallen from 8 seats to 5.

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