National Approval Ratings: In Uttar Pradesh, big gains projected for SP-BSP alliance even as NDA's seat-share projected to dwindle

Months ahead of all-important Lok Sabha polls, Republic TV, in association with CVoter, has released National Approval Ratings which captures mood of nation if elections were to take place in December. In 2014, BJP registered a massive seat-share in Uttar Pradesh, winning 73 out of 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh which is country's most electorally significant state. Congress, on or hand, mand to secure just 2 seats -- Sonia Gandhi's Rae Bareli and Rahul Gandhi's Amethi -- while SP (Samajwadi Party) who were in power in state at that time, won only five and Mayawati's BSP failed to win a single seat. In December 2018, however, situation is projected to have changed.

Here are National Approval Ratings for Uttar Pradesh if elections were held in December 2018:

se projections have come days after BJP lost three of Hindi heartland states of country to Congress in assembly elections 2018, result of which came on December 11.

As per December projections, BJP-led NDA's figures in alliance with Apna Dal are predicted to fall massively down from 73 to just 28 seats. However, gathbandhan of SP and BSP in state is predicted to make big gains by winning 50 seats, 8 seats more than vember projection of National Approval Ratings.

• Out of 80 seats, NDA will get a vote share of 42.8% with a seat share of 28 seats and within it, 27 to BJP and 1 to Apna Dal.
• Congress will get a vote share of 7.3% with a seat share of 2 seats. 
• SP+BSP+RLD alliance will get a vote share of 44.3% with a whopping 50 seats in its bag.

refore, going by projections, Hindi heartland UP is going against BJP at assembly level with 'gathbandhan' of Akhilesh Yadav's SP and Mayawati's BSP swooping majority. 

Comparison of current numbers with  projections of October and vember National Approval Ratings:

vember's National Approval Ratings projection came as big worry for PM Modi, Amit Shah and UP CM Yogi Adityanath, when ruling coalition dropped from 73 seats in 2014 to just 31 Lok Sabha seats. Rahul Gandhi-led UPA, which won just 2 seats in 2014, saw an increase to 5 seats, while traditional Uttar Pradesh regional powers (and former rivals), Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, were projected to be biggest gainers, increasing ir combined seat share from just 5 in 2014 (of which BSP won ne) to 44.

In October National Approval Ratings, NDA's seat-share projection had dropped by a very substantive 5 seats from 36. UPA, on or hand, was projected to have increased its seat-share from 2 to 5, while Mahagathbandhan (SP+BSP) were projected to have gained 2 seats from 42 seats.

Congress party loses big?

For NDA, projection may mean a 45-seat fall from 2014 but all is t lost considering, in terms of a vote share, re is a 0.4% increase from 2014. And should se projections be true, re is still a glimmer of hope for BJP to swing UP. However, for Congress, projections indicate  party to be biggest loser with a projected 3.7 fall in votes share and status quo in terms of seat-share from 2014. se projections may prove that Congress made zero inroads in state.

Yet again, Akhilesh and Mayawati alliance came as  biggest winners as per December projections with a vote share of 44.3% which is a 2.4% increase from ir combined vote share of 41.9% in 2014 and a 45 seat increase from ir combined performance of 2014.

alternative scenario (What is re is Gathbandhan?)

• Should Mahagathbandhan t carry forward to Lok Sabha polls in 2019, NDA can come out as biggest winner with a massive 72 seats and a vote share of 42.8%. n this projection would mean BJP led NDA is seeing a 1 seat fall from 2014 despite dual centre-state anti-incumbency.
• However, thing may change for Congress party with or without Mahagathbandhan.