National Approval Ratings: In Uttar Pradesh, seat share drop projected for NDA while Mahagathbandhan projected to win 44

Over last five year, India's most populous state of Uttar Pradesh has played arguably biggest role in BJP's most critical electoral successes. t only did party win an astonishing 73 Lok Sabha seats out of 80 in 2014 general elections, but three years later, in state elections it repeated feat by winning 312 seats in 403-seat Uttar Pradesh assembly. With months to go before 2019 general elections, Republic TV-CVoter National Approval Ratings have given a sense of where key political players in state would stand if elections were held today, i.e. in vember.

Here are National Approval Ratings for Uttar Pradesh if elections were held in vember 2018:

As is apparent, projection for NDA would be a worry for PM Modi, Amit Shah and UP CM Yogi Adityanath, with ruling coalition dropping from 73 seats in 2014 to just 31 Lok Sabha seats. Rahul Gandhi-led UPA, which won just 2 seats in 2014, would be in line to increase its seat share to 5, while traditional Uttar Pradesh regional powers (and former rivals), Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, are projected to be biggest gainers, increasing ir combined seat share from just 5 in 2014 (of which BSP won ne) to 44.

While seat equilibrium is projected to have shifted in comparison to 2014, in terms of voteshare, things are different. BJP secured 42.4% voteshare in 2014 and is projected to gain 1.5% to 43.9% in National Approval Ratings. UPA's voteshare, on or hand, drops by 3.1% to 7.9%, while SP and BSP are projected to accrue a combined voteshare of 44.7%. 

Comparison with October National Approval Ratings:

Interestingly, since previous edition of National Approval Ratings, in October, NDA's seatshare projection has dropped by a very substantive 5 seats from 36. UPA, on or hand, is projected to have increased its seatshare from 2 to 5, while Mahagathbandhan (SP+BSP) are projected to have gained 2 seats from 42 in October.

Salient points:

• BJP sees a month-on-month fall of 0.4% in vote share which translates to a 5 seat fall.
• Congress sees a 3-seat-gain and a 2.2% gain in vote share.
• Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati's Mahagathbandhan sees a 2-seat-gain despite a 0.1% fall in vote-share.
• re is a clear indication that re has been a direct transfer of 5 seats that BJP was projected to gain last month to Congress and Mahagathbandhan. 

FOLLOW | National Approval Ratings LIVE: In Electorally Critical vember, Will BJP, Congress Or Mahagathbandhan Win If General Elections Are Held Today? All Predictions From Biggest Poll Here

alternative scenario:

• If Mayawati and BSP decide to contest alone and re is a break up of Mahaghatbandhan, NDA can get as many as 70 seats which puts BJP right back at strength that y achieved in 2014, when party won 73 out of 80 seats
• Alternatively, if Mahagathbandhan goes with Congress it will be best case scenario for Congress, with UPA taking its present UP tally of 2 to 56