National Approval Ratings: In Uttar Pradesh, upswing projected for Mahagathbandhan as NDA's seat-share likely to dwindle

With 2019 Lok Sabha elections looming ever larger, political scenario in country is currently in a state of flux, with parties desperately figuring out seat-sharing terms, snubbing or accepting each or with respect to alliances, or fielding ir big names in various states. Republic TV and CVoter are back with National Approval Ratings to give a complete national picture as to who will win if polls are held today. 

Here are National Approval Ratings for Uttar Pradesh if elections were held in January 2019:

Predictions:

As per BJP projections, BJP-led NDA's figures in alliance with Apna Dal are predicted to fall massively down to just 25 seats. However, Gathbandhan of SP and BSP in state is predicted to make big gains by winning 51 seats, 1 seat more than December projection of National Approval Ratings.

• NDA will get a vote share of 42.2% vote share
• UPA will get a vote share of 12.7%.
• SP+BSP+RLD alliance will get a vote share of 43.0% in its bag.

Seat Share:

• UPA: 4 seat
• NDA: 25 seats
• MGB: 51 seats

Vote Share:

• UPA: 12.7%
• NDA: 42.0%
• MGB: 43.0%
• Ors: 2.3%

vember's National Approval Ratings projection came as a big worry for PM Modi, Amit Shah and UP CM Yogi Adityanath when ruling coalition dropped from 73 seats in 2014 to just 31 Lok Sabha seats. Rahul Gandhi-led UPA, which won just 2 seats in 2014, saw an increase to 5 seats, while traditional Uttar Pradesh regional powers (and former rivals), Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, were projected to be biggest gainers, increasing ir combined seat share from just 5 in 2014 (of which BSP won ne) to 44.

In October National Approval Ratings, NDA's seat-share projection had dropped by a very substantive 5 seats from 36. UPA, on or hand, was projected to have increased its seat-share from 2 to 5, while Mahagathbandhan (SP+BSP) were projected to have gained 2 seats from 42 seats.

Read: National Approval Ratings: In Uttar Pradesh, Big Gains Projected For SP-BSP Alliance Even As NDA's Seat-share Projected To Dwindle

election year 2019 started off with India’s opposition appearing largely unwilling to acquiesce to Rahul Gandhi's proposal of Congress serving as a platform for regional parties to come toger in order to defeat BJP. Despite Congress successes in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, in Uttar Pradesh, much-heralded Mahagathbandhan turned out to just be a 'Gathbandhan' as old enemies Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati left Congress out, forming an SP-BSP alliance. Left on its own, Congress resolved to contest every one of state's 80 seats and proceeded to formally induct Priyanka Gandhi Vadra into party, appointing her and Jyotiraditya Scindia as General Secretaries for Uttar Pradesh. Elsewhere, former Gujarat CM Shankarsinh Vaghela is to join NCP, while Congress alliance with TDP in Andhra Pradesh is also in doubt. Meanwhile, BJP and Shiv Sena may have witnessed a thaw in ir relationship with Maharashtra government sanctioning Rs 100 crore for a Balasaheb Thackeray memorial. 

On issues concerning large numbers of people, government passed a constitutional amendment giving a green signal to provide 10 percent reservation in jobs and educational institutions to ecomically weaker sections in general category, while numerous agrarian schemes that needn't necessarily be farm-loan waivers have also been spoken of in lead-up to Modi government's final budget.