UP Opinion Poll 2022: P-MARQ Poll predicts Yogi Adityanath's return with BJP win

elections for 403-member Uttar Pradesh Assembly will take place in seven phases from February 10 to March 7. major political parties in fray are ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Indian National Congress and debutant Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). P-MARQ has conducted a comprehensive survey to bring on-point Opinion Poll on 2022 Assembly polls.

P-MARQ Poll was conducted with a sample size of 16,390 individuals in state of Uttar Pradesh from January 5 to January 16. survey t only beams overall state-wise prediction, seat and vote share, but it will also forecast performance of government and preferred Chief Minister.

Uttar Pradesh opinion poll: Who will win?

Chief Minister Yogi Adityanth-led BJP+ is likely to retain power with party projected to win 252-272 seats in 403-member Assembly. On or hand, Samajwadi Party+ is looking to bag 111-131 seats. Or parties are likely to have small gains. BSP is likely to bag 8 - 16, Congress 3-9 and ors 0-4 seats. 

18% of respondents termed BJP government's performance in state as excellent while 38% termed it good. 25% of respondents believed it was aver while 19% termed it poor. On Centre's front, 34% of respondents were super happy with PM Modi government's performance and called it excellent, 28% termed it good, 24% aver and 14% poor, respectively.

Region-wise Seat breakup

Opinion Poll: Would shift of ministers and MLAs increase SP's chances?

Moreover, 61% respondents felt that last-minute shift of ministers and MLAs to SP's would increase its chances. 

Opinion Poll: Who do you prefer as CM of state?

Current Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath was first choice for top post of 41.2% of respondents, while 29.4% of respondents were in favour of Samajwadi Party's Akhilesh Yadav. BSP's Mayawati received support from 13.4% of respondents. 5.8% of people also believed that Priyanka Gandhi from Congress can helm position in state.

Opinion Poll: Which is biggest issue according to you?

Unemployment and farmers protest has been termed as biggest issue by 20% of respondents respectively, followed by an increase in fuel prices and essential commodities (15%), Lack of widespread availably of water, (14%) bad roads (8%), Issue of stray cattle (6%) and or issues (10%).

Are you satisfied with performance of your MLA? (Survey conducted in BJP constituencies)

Which is biggest factor for your vote?

Methodology

methodology is random stratified sampling using predominantly three techniques Field surveys, CATI, and IDIs with key people in districts and assembly constituencies. We n use a probabilistic model to determine number of seats a party is going to win from estimated vote share. survey results have been adjusted in proportion to reflect state and district population across groups, religion, and caste. questions in survey were designed to reflect current scenario electorally and politically and to gauge critical factors that might play a role in this election. re is error margin of 3%.

Political scenario in Uttar Pradesh

In 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, BJP had won a whopping 312 seats in 403-member House, whereas BSP could win only 19 seats. On or hand, SP-Congress alliance failed to bear fruit as it could win in only 54 constituencies. While this was seen as a mandate for PM Modi as BJP had t declared any CM candidate, Gorakhpur MP Yogi Adityanath was a surprise pick for post. 

Though Asaduddin Owaisi-led party initially joined Om Prakash Rajbhar-led 'Bhagidari Sankalp Morcha', it was left in lurch after Rajbhar's Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party forged a pre-poll alliance with SP. As of w, AIMIM has revealed its intention to contest 100 seats in UP. upcoming UP Assembly election will be held in 7 phases beginning February 10 whereas counting of votes shall take place on March 10.