Robbing Peter To Pay Paul: State Welfarism Works for Kejriwal

 Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) victory has returned Arvind Kejriwal as Chief Minister of city-state of Delhi for third time. Every exit poll, including Jan Ki Baat on Republic Media Network, had predicted Tuesday’s result giving a broad sweep to AAP. It is going to be a dream third term for Kejriwal who rose from dust of Anna Hazare movement in 2013, evolving a brand of grassroots politics that centers around a mass leader and populism.

Does that ring a bell? Has it worked with or leaders in recent past with equal success? Yes, re are many such examples in states. Nitish Kumar in Bihar, Mamata Banerjee in Bengal, late J Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu or Naveen Patnaik in Odisha are all leaders who combined personal charisma with a heavy dose of state welfarism to remain unbeatable by opponents in ir respective territories. But ne has perfected and scaled up formula on to national st as Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He did that in Gujarat to become longest-serving chief minister of state before coming to Delhi, riding a wave that was for him much more than for his party.  

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re is an uncanny resemblance in  manner in which Kejriwal has shorted BJP in this election using its own rule book. Let’s see how. To begin with, post his 2015 win, Kejriwal firmed grip over AAP and fashioned party in his own mind, easing out all equals from Prashant Bhushan to Yogendra Yadav to Kumar Vishwas among ors. This gave him some delusions of grandeur, for, I saw a hoarding in Goa in 2016 that said AAP was coming to power in state on its own - repeating same in Punjab, Rajasthan, and most recently in Haryana.

results of general elections last year clearly showed he had bitten more than he could chew. Kejriwal's AAP stood third in his own den of Delhi, accounting for a mere 18% votes, even losing deposits in two seats. Just under a year before today's win, Kejriwal had hit a nadir. But n began perhaps most nimble-footed turnaround in recent Indian political history. Delhi CM took all possible lessons in one single capsule provided by second Modi wave. Gone were rent-a-quote attacks on Centre. Targeting Prime Minister vanished completely. PM Modi became his Prime Minister too. entire focus came on winning Delhi again. 

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He first solidified core AAP support base of urban poor with freebies beginning with cheap power and water bills. As a build-up to election, Kejriwal went on anuncing and implementing measures like free metro rides for women, free bus travel, marshals for women's security in transit, a CCTV network for secure neighbourhoods, free wi-fi, model schools and healthcare, promising to make Delhi almost a Scandinavian welfare state. It is debatable wher he implemented half or less of it. It is likely that central grants played some role. But idea struck a chord with masses. BJP made some counteroffers and Congress party even promised a cashback. But Kejriwal was quick to claim copyright with a first-mover advant, and an aggressive advertising campaign at government expense, before Model Code of Conduct kicked in.

Parallelly, Kejriwal began project to poach on BJP's middle-class right-wing voter by openly flirting with Hindu sentiment in his politics. See for yourself spike in ads that publicized his Hindu pilgrim scheme for elderly, his snubbing of a Pakistani minister, backing Modi government on Pulwama and Kashmir post abrogation of Article 370, welcoming Ayodhya verdict, completely skirting Shaheen Bagh (even as his accomplice Amanatullah Khan choreographed it behind scenes), singing Hanuman Chalisa on national TV, following it up with an election-eve visit to Connaught Place Hanuman temple. Thanking Lord Hanuman in his victory speech was t just meant to rub it into BJP. It had worked.

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Clearly, despite his (limited) celebrity, a Maj Tiwari was match to this well thought and played out work of political reinvention. Amit Shah's encore in last fortnight of campaign has paid BJP handsomely by shoring up its vote bank beyond its core of 30% in Delhi. With a moribund Congress, using anti-CAA protests to divide n-BJP votes between grand old party and AAP failed miserably. It speaks something of Congress that it had to pull out memories of Sheila Dikshit from dead in its campaign, with result that almost entire centrist vote went to Kejriwal. 

As trends emerged and cadres burst into victory celebrations at AAP headquarters near ITO earlier in day, a poster emerged on walls asking for missed calls from those who wanted to join AAP for nation-building. Having emerged a winner, would Tuesday’s victory again fuel national ambition in AAP supremo? Keep watching.

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