Myanmar military's coup topples fragile 12-year old quasi-democracy: Here's their equation

National League for Democracy (NLD) the elected ruling party of Myanmar had on Monday announced that its de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi along with several senior party officials had been 'detained' by the country's military in an apparent coup. The party's spokesperson had pointed out that the Nobel Peace Prize winner had issued a pre-emptive call to her people just hours before her arrest through her Facebook page and urged them to 'reject a coup' at all cost.

On Monday, Feb 1, Myanmar's military detained the democratically elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi and imposed a one-year state of emergency in the country as it seized power in a bloodless coup. It is imperative to note that the military claims that the arrest was made because of widespread assertions made against NLD over election fraud allegations in last year's elections. Aung San Suu Kyi and other senior NLD leaders were taken into custody by soldiers on the same day as the first new parliamentary session which was due to be held on Feb 1 since the national elections last November.

How did the crisis begin?

NLD first came to power in 2015 as the country just began flirting with the idea of a transitional democracy. Aung San Suu Kyi not only swept the polls then but also emerged as an immensely popular figure in the elections, sending clear signs to the Army that previously controlled the country for nearly 60 years since its independence. Her popularity among the people grew more with time and in 2019 helped her win the biggest mandate the country has ever see. All this despite the tarnished reputation the Noble Peace prize winner has earned over the alleged crackdown on the stateless Rohingya minorities in 2017 — a crime which she denies she had any part in but continues to haunt her since then. It is important to note that during her previous term, Aung San Suu Kyi circumvented a rule that prevented her from becoming President by taking the de facto leadership of State Counsellor — a loophole which the military had not foreseen.

Given the chronology of events and her evident rise to power, the military claimed they had reason to suspect that the 2019 election was 'plagiarised by irregularities,' as reported by Myanmar Army TV. The allegations further suggested that the military had uncovered over 10 million instances of voter fraud in the country and have thus demanded the government-run elections commission to release voter lists for cross-referencing.

Following the allegations, both sides exchanged barbs until General Min Aung Hlaing — arguably the most powerful individual in the country who threatened to 'revoke' the recently drafted Constitution and send the country back to its previous form of ruling, that being a military-run government. Tensions grew after the General made such an open and violent call and also followed it up by briefly deploying tanks on the streets of Yangon and the nation's capital Naypyidaw along with pro-military protestors who took to the streets against the apparent election results. 

Can Myanmar's military revoke the Constitution?

Myanmar's Constitution was drafted in 2008 with the intention of replacing the first Constitution adopted by the Constituent Assembly and enacted for the Union of Burma in 1947. After the 1962 Burmese coup, a second Constitution was enacted in 1974 which held the military in the highest regard. It wasn't until the 2008 Constitution — the third one since Myanmar's independence that the country's current Constitution was formed after a referendum which still gave the military a significant amount of power. 

The Tatmadaw (Myanmar Armed Forces) continues to enjoy 25% of seats in the Parliament unopposed, and automatically reserves key roles such as Home Ministry, Border Affairs, Defence Ministry, and one of the country's two vice presidency positions all to itself. It is mandated that these roles are headed by a serving military officer. This not only dilutes the little influence that civilian leaders have over the security establishment but they also risk losing the current status of democracy in transition if they upset the military and thereby expose the nation to the possibility of an older Constitutional framework.

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What is the current situation in Myanmar?

Television signals have been effectively cut across the country, as are phone and internet access in the national capital Naypyitaw. While intra-city travel is not banned, intra-state travel has been restricted and all passenger flights grounded. Phone service in other parts of the country have also been disengaged and internet access is reported to be patchy in some less volatile and violence-prone areas of the country.

The cities are barricaded with barbed wires, concrete roadblocks and military units have begun to appear outside government buildings such as City Halls with armoured tanks and soldiers deployed in Yangon, the largest and most populous city in the country. ATMs, restaurant and grocery shops are overcrowded as panic buying sets in, despite a large looming fear of Covid-19 infection. Local residents have out of fear removed the symbols of Aung San Suu Kyi’s party and NLD flag from their premises and there is a great deal of outcry on social media as people take to Facebook and Twitter to document whatever they can about the present scenario there before complete internet access is revoked.

What will happen to Aung San Suu Kyi and Myanmar?

Military-run news channel Myawaddy TV announced in their official statement that Myint Swe, a former General who ran the Yangon military command and the current vice president will become acting president for the next year. The statement also added that control of legislation, administration and judiciary departments have also been handed over to another military loyalist and serving officer Min Aung Hlaing thereby effectively returning Myanmar to its former military rule. Notably, Myanmar has been ruled by military regimes for most of its history since independence from Britain in 1948.

As for Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader who has been trying to amend the charter in the Constitution which gave the military unparallel power and access since winning the election first in 2015 and then in 2020 with little success, will be forced to stay in detention (under house arrest) along with her government until the military evaluates the threat levels and carries out a trial in the now compromised judicial system via its military court.

While the military maintains its actions are legally justified, the announcement also cited a clause in the Constitution that allows the military to take over in times of emergency. However, Aung San Suu Kyi and NLD spokesperson along with and several growing voices outside the party have said it’s effectively a coup that dismantles the democratic progress Myanmar has made in the last five years. 

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