Protests in Iraq and Lebanon pose a challenge to Iran

day after anti-government protests erupted in Iraq, Iranian Gen. Qassim Soleimani flew into Baghd late at night and took a helicopter to heavily fortified Green Zone, where he surprised a group of top security officials by chairing a meeting in place of prime minister.

arrival of Soleimani, he of Iran’s elite Quds Force and architect of its regional security apparatus, signaled Tehran’s concern over protests, which h erupted across capital and in Iraq’s Shiite heartland, and included calls for Iran to stop meddling in country.

protests in Iraq and Leban are fueled by local grievances and mainly directed at political elites, but y also pose a challenge to Iran, which closely backs both governments as well as powerful armed groups in each country. An increasingly violent crackdown in Iraq and an attack by Hezbollah supporters on main protest camp in Beirut have raised fears of a backlash by Iran and its allies.

“We in Iran kw how to deal with protests,” Soleimani told Iraqi officials, according to two senior officials familiar with meeting who spoke on condition of anymity to discuss secret garing. “This happened in Iran and we got it under control.”

But nearly a month later, protests in Iraq have resumed and demonstrations continue in Leban, both directed at governments and factions allied with Tehran. protests threaten Iran’s regional influence at a time when it is struggling under crippling U.S. sanctions.

day after Soleimani’s visit, clashes between protesters and security forces in Iraq became far more violent, with death toll soaring past 100 as unidentified snipers shot demonstrators in he and chest. Nearly 150 protesters were killed in less than a week.

During renewed protests this week, men in black plainclos and masks stood in front of Iraqi soldiers, facing off with protesters and firing tear gas. Residents said y did t kw who y were, with some speculating y were Iranians.

“Iran is afraid of se demonstrations because it has me most gains in government and parliament through parties close to it” since U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, said Hisham al-Hashimi, an Iraqi security analyst. “Iran does t want to lose se gains. So it has tried to work through its parties to contain protests in a very Iranian way.”

It hasn’t worked.

protests in Iraq resumed Friday after a brief hiatus, with protesters massing in Baghd’s Tahrir Square and clashing with security forces as y tried to breach barrices on a bridge leing to Green Zone, seat of government and home to several embassies. In sourn Iraq, protesters have attacked and torched offices of political parties and government-backed militias allied with Iran.

In a country that is OPEC’s second-largest oil producer, impoverished residents complain that powerful Shiite militias tied to Iran have built ecomic empires, taking control of state reconstruction projects and branching into illicit business activities.

“All parties and factions are corrupt, and this is connected to Iran, because it’s using m to try and export its system of clerical rule to Iraq,” said Ali al-Araqi, a 35-year-old protester from sourn town of Nasiriyah, which has seen especially violent clashes between protesters and security forces.

“ people are against this, and that is why you are seeing an uprising against Iran,” he said.

Overnight Tuesday, masked men who appeared to be linked to Iraq’s security forces opened fire on protesters in Karbala, a holy city associated with martyrdom of one of most revered figures in Shiite Islam. At least 18 protesters were killed and hundreds were wounded in bloodshed that could mark an omius turning point in demonstrations. In Baghd, protesters burned an Iranian flag. Days earlier, protesters h gared outside Iranian Consulate in Karbala, chanting “Iran, out, out!”

In Leban, hundreds of thousands of people have taken to streets, demanding resignation of a government dominated by pro-Iran factions. As in Iraq, protests are focused on local grievances .

“ protests in both Iraq and Leban are primarily about local politics and a corrupt political class that has failed to deliver,” said Ayham Kamel, Middle East and rth Africa practice he at Eurasia Group.

protests “showcase failure of proxy model where Iran is able to expand influence but its allies are unable to effectively govern,” Kamel said.

Lebanese protesters have only rarely called out Iran and its main local ally, militant Hezbollah group, but y have focused much of ir r on Leban’s president and foreign minister, who come from a Christian party closely allied with Hezbollah.

A common chant, “All means all,” implies that ne of Leban’s factions, including Hezbollah and its allies, are beyond reproach.

Last week, fistfights broke out at a main rally when protesters chanted against Hezbollah leer Hassan Nasrallah, who anunced at around same time that he was withdrawing his supporters from protests. He said unspecified foreign powers were exploiting protests to undermine his group, warning that such actions could plunge country back into civil war.

On Tuesday, Hezbollah supporters rampd through main protest camp in central Beirut. Shortly reafter, Prime Minister Sa Hariri, a Western-backed leer who h reluctantly partnered with pro-Iran factions in a national unity government, resigned. protesters returned to square by sundown, cheering ir first victory since demonstrations began Oct. 17.

Hezbollah is most powerful armed force in Leban and was alone in refusing to disarm after 1975-1990 civil war. It justifies its arsenal by saying it’s needed to defend country from Israel, which occupied sourn Leban from 1982 to 2000.

Hezbollah sent thousands of fighters to neighboring Syria to help defeat uprising against Syrian President Bashar Ass, ar key Iranian ally. Iraq’s powerful Iran-backed militias, initially mobilized to battle Islamic State group, have also fought alongside Ass’s troops. And Iran violently suppressed its own pro-democracy protests, kwn as Green Movement, after disputed 2009 presidential election.

Iran has been largely silent on protests, while expressing support for both governments, as well as Hezbollah. Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi has offered Tehran’s “deep regret” about scores of protesters killed in Iraq.

“We are sure that Iraqi government, nation and clerics can overcome se problems,” he said.

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Krauss reported from Beirut. Associated Press writer Nasser Karimi in Tehran, Iran, contributed to this report.