Renewed US-Russia nuke pact won't fix emerging arms threats

Joe Biden ministration was quick to brea new life into last remaining treaty limiting U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons. going will be slower when it turns to or arms control problems that are eir festering or emerging as potential triggers of an international arms race.

China is modernizing its arsenal of nuclear weapons and has shown interest in negotiating limits. rth Korea is at or near point of being able to threaten U.S. homeland with a nuclear missile strike. Russia has begun deploying new, exotic weapons, including nuclear-capable devices designed to eve best of American missile defences. Iran is seen as biggest missile threat in Mideast.

Each of those problems is a priority for President Joe Biden, but he acted on Russia first, reflecting urgency of extending treaty even as Biden seeks to take a tougher line with Russian President Vlimir Putin in response to issues like arrest of opposition figure Alexei Navalny and Russia’s alleged involvement in a massive cyber espion campaign against U.S. government.

In anuncing that Biden and Putin agreed in a phone call Tuesday that y would extend by five years New START treaty — which would orwise have expired next week — White House alluded vaguely to broer challenges with Moscow. It said leers “also agreed to explore strategic stability discussions on a range of arms control and emerging security issues.”

New START, negotiated while Biden served as vice president, limits United States and Russia to 1,550 deployed nuclear warhes on strategic weapons like submarines, bomber aircraft and land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles. limits took effect in February 2018 and would expire in February 2021 unless parties agreed to extend deal for up to five years.

Both houses of Russian parliament voted unanimously Wednesday for treaty extension. Speaking to World Ecomic Forum’s virtual meeting, Putin hailed extension as “a step in right direction,” but he also warned of rising global rivalries and threats of new conflicts.

pact’s extension doesn’t require approval by U.S. Congress. It is expected to be validated by an exchange of diplomatic tes. n question will be: How does international arms control proceed, given tense state of U.S.-Russia relations, rise of China and or sources of uncertainty?

Although Russia is America's most willing partner, arms control may longer be dressed solely by Moscow and Washington, whose nuclear arsenals were largely only ones that counted during Cold War. In that period, U.S. war planners viewed China's relatively small nuclear force as a subset of Russia's rar than as a major threat in its own right. and cyber weapons were distant problems but are w in forefront.

“ big-picture question is wher what we're seeing with extension of New START is a last breath put into dying body of arms control, or wher this is genuinely start of a re-invigoration of arms control efforts,” says Mark Bell, an assistant professor at University of Minnesota who specializes in nuclear weapons issues. “ landscape for arms control is t a particularly optimistic one moving forward.”

hope among arms control vocates is that Biden's decision to accept Russia's offer of a five-year extension of New START will set st for broer talks on steps to lessen risk of war between world's two biggest nuclear powers.

Biden knew that extending New START would be welcomed by America's NATO partners, who h opposed Trump ministration's withdrawal from or arms control deals.

"I don’t see treaty’s extension as end, but beginning of an effort to furr strengn international nuclear arms control,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said last week. “So agreements that cover more weapons and also include more nations like China should be on nda in future.”

But China has been unwilling, and re is little evidence that Moscow is rey to dress what some consider most worrisome numerical imbalance in U.S.-Russian nuclear forces — Moscow's n-strategic nuclear weapons, such as sea- and air-launched nuclear cruise missiles. se are t limited by New START.

Russians see a different problem — unconstrained American missile defences and or U.S. systems y view as dangerous and destabilizing.

Robert Soofer, who was top nuclear policy official at Pentagon during Trump ministration, says Biden squandered negotiating lever when he agreed to a five-year extension of New START without pressing Moscow for commitments on related issues.

“re's reason for m to negotiate because y're good for five years,” Soofer said. “y got what y want.”

From Russian point of view, ding five years to life of New START offers time to deal with what its ambassor to Washington, Anatoly Antov, has described as a “serious crisis” in arms control.

In a Jan. 12 statement, Antov laid out Moscow's arms control priorities, starting with U.S. missile defences, which Russians see as an attempt to undermine strategic value of ir nuclear arsenal. y say it is a reason y developed a hypersonic glide vehicle, kwn as Avangard, that can be carried aboard Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile and maeuvre to eve defences.

Some critics of U.S. reliance on nuclear weapons say missile defence must be open to negotiation.

“ unconstrained pursuit of missile defence has encourd Russia to develop multiple new s of nuclear options to attack United States and pushed China to expand and improve its nuclear arsenal,” says Laura Grego, co-director of global security program at Union of Concerned Scientists. "This dynamic must change because it is a roblock to achieving meaningful nuclear arms reductions.”

U.S. has refused to agree to any limits on its missile defences, which it says are meant to protect United States from long-range missile attacks by rth Korea — t as a defence against Russia.

Soofer says he sees little prospect of movement soon on that and or U.S.-Russian arms disputes.

“This is going to be beginning of a very long, drawn-out negotiation,” he said.