Republic Double Exit Poll for Bihar: Modi-Nitish duo projected to overpower Mahagathbandhan, both Jan Ki Baat and CVoter predict BJP and JD(U) to leave RJD-Congress stumped

As the polling in the all-important 2019 Lok Sabha polls - the largest exercise in democratic franchise anywhere in the world - has officially come to an end, the countdown for the deciding-day - May 23  has begun, when the results of the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections will finally be declared. While India is on the threshold of welcoming a new government, the Republic Media Network has broadcast India's biggest exit poll - the mega double exit poll in collaboration with the country's top pollsters Jan Ki Baat and CVoter. 

An estimated 900 million citizens voted in thousands of polling booths in every corner of the country in the 39 days-long voting process. Vote-counting will be held for 542 seats in the Lower House of India's Parliament (Vellore in Tamil Nadu stands countermanded) and the country awaits with the crucial numbers regarding the composition of the 17th Lok Sabha.

While the exact numbers will be declared on May 23, Republic Media Network presents mega double exit poll a projection of how the seat-shares and vote-shares could turn out for each of the states and union territories of India, and put together, project whether the BJP and NDA will be able to repeat their historic mandate of 2014 and conversely, whether the Congress, UPA will be able to make a fightback from reaching a historic low. The projections are made after conducting extensive on-ground surveys all across the country following each of the seven phases of the 2019 polls.

Projection for Bihar (Total 40 seats):

Both the CVoter and Jan Ki Baat exit polls predict that NDA will emerge victorious in the state. While Jan Ki Baat projects that the BJP, JD(U), LJP alliance will win between 28 and 21 seats in the state (11,15 and 4 seats projected for BJP, JD(U) and LJP respectively), CVoter projects 33 as the number that will go in NDA's favour in the state. 

CVoter:

Seat-share projection: 

NDA: 33 seats (BJP: 13, JD(U) + LJP: 20)

UPA: 7 seats (Congress: 2, RJD: 5)

CVoter vote-share projection:

NDA: 48.7 per cent

UPA: 38.9 per cent

Jan Ki Baat: 

Seat-share projection:

NDA: 28-31 seats (JD(U): 11, BJP: 15, LJP: 4)
 
UPA: 8-11 seats

Political scenario in the state: 

One state that has given varied results in the recent past. In 2014 elections, BJP won 22 of 40 seats in the state, in assembly polls when its ally JD(U) joined the Mahagathbandhan with the RJD, BJP was reduced being the third-largest party. However, JD(U) and BJP are contesting the 2019 election together against the Mahagathbandhan comprising of Congress, RJD and others. Chief Minister of the state Nitish Kumar broke the alliance with the Mahagathbandhan in 2017 following allegations of corruption on his deputy Cheif Minister and RJD supremo Lalu Yadav's son Tejashwi Yadav. After which Nitish Kumar joined the NDA again only to lose leaders like Sharad Yadav from his party. The likes of Sharad Yadav, former Chief Minister of Bihar Jitan Ram Manjhi, Lalu Yadav's Rashtriya Janta Dal and Congress formed a grand alliance or Mahagtahbandhan in the state. Other smaller parties like Mukesh Sahni's Vikasheel Insan Party are also the part of the Mahagathbandhan. The contest in the state is directly between the Mahagathbandhan and the NDA comprising of JD(U) and BJP.

While Nitish is seen as 'susashan babu' (development man) in the state, Tejashwi Yadav said to be the face of Mahagathbandhan, has campaigned extensively on the corruption allegations on Nitish Kumar and his current deputy Sushil Kumar Modi. 

These are the key contest in the state:

1. Madhepura: A 'Yadav bastion', this has an interesting contest. The sitting MP of Madhepura is Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav who won the Lok Sabha seat in 2014 by defeating Sharad Yadav. While in 2014 he won on an RJD ticket, Pappu Yadav has since formed his own party - Jan Adhikar party -  upon being expelled by Lalu Yadav. He will once again take on Sharad Yadav.
     
2. Begusarai: The Begusarai constituency, which is among the most talked about seats in Bihar, recorded a comparatively high turnout of 61.27%, as per the EC. The constituency has been under a microscope as it is witnessing the electoral debut of CPI candidate Kanhaiya Kumar, the controversial former JNUSU president who is pitted against BJP leader and union minister Giriraj Singh. The Mahagathbandhan's nominee is Tanweer Hasan (RJD).
    
3. Patna Sahib: In the Patna Sahib constituency that covers the entire Patna city, capital of Bihar and part of outskirts, the contest is between former BJP leader and now a Congress candidate Shatrughan Sinha and Union Law Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad. Known to be a BJP bastion, Sinha is confident about his victory de to his image as a "Bihari Babu". While Sinha is seeking to retain the seat for a third consecutive term, this time on a Congress ticket, Prasad is contesting to maintain BJP's stronghold in the state. 
    
4. Patliputra: Lal Yadav's daughter Misa Bharti is contesting against former Lalu's confidant Ram Kripal Yadav who joined the BJP in 2014 after being denied a ticket from Patliputra. Amid a Modi wave, he defeated Misa Bharti by over 40,000 votes. Bharti made a sharp attack on Yadav wherein she said that she had felt like chopping off the hands of her father's former confidant upon hearing the news of his joining the BJP party ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Bharti lost to Ram Kripal Yadav from Pataliputra Lok Sabha seat but got elected to the Rajya Sabha later.
    

    

How the state voted: 

Phase 1 voter turnout comparison

2014 Lok Sabha elections: 51.82 percent

2019 Lok Sabha elections: 53.44 percent

Phase 2 voter turnout comparison

2014 Lok Sabha elections: 58.12 percent

2019 Lok Sabha elections: 62.92 percent

Phase 3 voter turnout comparison

2014 Lok Sabha elections: 60.08 percent

2019 Lok Sabha elections: 61.02 percent

Phase 4 voter turnout comparison

2014 Lok Sabha elections: 57.54 percent

2019 Lok Sabha elections: 59.27 percent

Phase 5 voter turnout comparison

2014 Lok Sabha elections: 56.46 percent

2019 Lok Sabha elections: 57.08 percent

Phase 6 voter turnout comparison

2014 Lok Sabha elections: 57.24 percent

2019 Lok Sabha elections: 58.48 percent

Republic Double Exit Poll For West Bengal: Major Inroads Projected For BJP In Mamata Banerjee's Bastion, Trinamool Likely To Come Down From 2014 High In 2019 Lok Sabha Polls

The Lok Sabha election stretched for more than one month saw heated campaigning from all parties. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi, seeking a second term in the office, addressed a total of 144 rallies and roadshows this election season, Congress president Rahul Gandhi addressed 125 rallies in the 2019 polls with the elections also marking the entry of his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra as an official member of the Congress.

In the Lok Sabha elections 2019, there were controversies galore over the course of the polls, ranging from poll violence being witnessed in each of the 7 phases of voting in Bengal, to some shocking statements from leaders across parties, with the likes of Azam Khan, Yogi Adityanath, Maneka Gandhi and others being struck down on by the Election Commission, and others, like Sam Pitroda, Sadhvi Pragya and Kamal Haasan triggering mass outrage. 

A number of Republic Media Network newsbreaks especially set the agenda for the polls, including the first interview of the Prime Minister's election campaign to Republic's Editor-in-Chief Arnab Goswami and his final campaign interview to Executive Editor Abhishek Kapoor. Alongside these were the sensational #MPsOnSale sting on sitting MPs who showed themselves willing to compromise the interests of those whom they claim to represent, the Operation Karz Maafi sting that exposed the falsehood in the Congress' farm loan-waiver promise, and numerous others.

The vote counting for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls will be held on May 23. Join Arnab on Republic Media Network for non-stop coverage of the sensational conclusion to the general elections here.

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