Republic Double Exit Poll for Bihar: Modi-Nitish duo projected to overpower Mahagathbandhan, both Jan Ki Baat and CVoter predict BJP and JD(U) to leave RJD-Congress stumped

As polling in all-important 2019 Lok Sabha polls - largest exercise in democratic franchise anywhere in world - has officially come to an end, countdown for deciding-day - May 23  has begun, when results of 2019 Lok Sabha Elections will finally be declared. While India is on threshold of welcoming a new government,  Republic Media Network has broadcast India's biggest exit poll - mega double exit poll in collaboration with country's top pollsters Jan Ki Baat and CVoter. 

An estimated 900 million citizens voted in thousands of polling booths in every corner of country in 39 days-long voting process. Vote-counting will be held for 542 seats in Lower House of India's Parliament (Vellore in Tamil Nadu stands countermanded) and country awaits with crucial numbers regarding composition of 17th Lok Sabha.

While exact numbers will be declared on May 23, Republic Media Network presents mega double exit poll a projection of how seat-shares and vote-shares could turn out for each of states and union territories of India, and put toger, project wher BJP and NDA will be able to repeat ir historic mandate of 2014 and conversely, wher Congress, UPA will be able to make a fightback from reaching a historic low. projections are made after conducting extensive on-ground surveys all across country following each of seven phases of 2019 polls.

Projection for Bihar (Total 40 seats):

Both CVoter and Jan Ki Baat exit polls predict that NDA will emerge victorious in state. While Jan Ki Baat projects that BJP, JD(U), LJP alliance will win between 28 and 21 seats in state (11,15 and 4 seats projected for BJP, JD(U) and LJP respectively), CVoter projects 33 as number that will go in NDA's favour in state. 

CVoter:

Seat-share projection: 

NDA: 33 seats (BJP: 13, JD(U) + LJP: 20)

UPA: 7 seats (Congress: 2, RJD: 5)

CVoter vote-share projection:

NDA: 48.7 per cent

UPA: 38.9 per cent

Jan Ki Baat: 

Seat-share projection:

NDA: 28-31 seats (JD(U): 11, BJP: 15, LJP: 4)
 
UPA: 8-11 seats

Political scenario in state: 

One state that has given varied results in recent past. In 2014 elections, BJP won 22 of 40 seats in state, in assembly polls when its ally JD(U) joined  Mahagathbandhan with RJD, BJP was reduced being third-largest party. However, JD(U) and BJP are contesting 2019 election toger against Mahagathbandhan comprising of Congress, RJD and ors. Chief Minister of state Nitish Kumar broke alliance with Mahagathbandhan in 2017 following allegations of corruption on his deputy Cheif Minister and RJD supremo Lalu Yadav's son Tejashwi Yadav. After which Nitish Kumar joined NDA again only to lose leaders like Sharad Yadav from his party. likes of Sharad Yadav, former Chief Minister of Bihar Jitan Ram Manjhi, Lalu Yadav's Rashtriya Janta Dal and Congress formed a grand alliance or Mahagtahbandhan in state. Or smaller parties like Mukesh Sahni's Vikasheel Insan Party are also part of Mahagathbandhan. contest in state is directly between Mahagathbandhan and NDA comprising of JD(U) and BJP.

While Nitish is seen as 'susashan babu' (development man) in state, Tejashwi Yadav said to be face of Mahagathbandhan, has campaigned extensively on corruption allegations on Nitish Kumar and his current deputy Sushil Kumar Modi. 

se are key contest in state:

1. Madhepura: A 'Yadav bastion', this has an interesting contest.  sitting MP of Madhepura is Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav who won Lok Sabha seat in 2014 by defeating Sharad Yadav. While in 2014 he won on an RJD ticket, Pappu Yadav has since formed his own party - Jan Adhikar party -  upon being expelled by Lalu Yadav. He will once again take on Sharad Yadav.
     
2. Begusarai:  Begusarai constituency, which is among most talked about seats in Bihar, recorded a comparatively high turut of 61.27%, as per EC. constituency has been under a microscope as it is witnessing electoral debut of CPI candidate Kanhaiya Kumar, controversial former JNUSU president who is pitted against BJP leader and union minister Giriraj Singh.  Mahagathbandhan's minee is Tanweer Hasan (RJD).
    
3. Patna Sahib: In  Patna Sahib constituency that covers entire Patna city, capital of Bihar and part of outskirts, contest is between former BJP leader and w a Congress candidate Shatrughan Sinha and Union Law Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad. Kwn to be a BJP bastion, Sinha is confident about his victory de to his im as a "Bihari Babu". While Sinha is seeking to retain seat for a third consecutive term, this time on a Congress ticket, Prasad is contesting to maintain BJP's stronghold in state. 
    
4. Patliputra: Lal Yadav's daughter Misa Bharti is contesting against former Lalu's confidant Ram Kripal Yadav who joined BJP in 2014 after being denied a ticket from Patliputra. Amid a Modi wave, he defeated Misa Bharti by over 40,000 votes. Bharti made a sharp attack on Yadav wherein she said that she had felt like chopping off hands of her far's former confidant upon hearing  news of his joining BJP party ahead of 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Bharti lost to Ram Kripal Yadav from Pataliputra Lok Sabha seat but got elected to Rajya Sabha later.
    

    

How state voted: 

Phase 1 voter turut comparison

2014 Lok Sabha elections: 51.82 percent

2019 Lok Sabha elections: 53.44 percent

Phase 2 voter turut comparison

2014 Lok Sabha elections: 58.12 percent

2019 Lok Sabha elections: 62.92 percent

Phase 3 voter turut comparison

2014 Lok Sabha elections: 60.08 percent

2019 Lok Sabha elections: 61.02 percent

Phase 4 voter turut comparison

2014 Lok Sabha elections: 57.54 percent

2019 Lok Sabha elections: 59.27 percent

Phase 5 voter turut comparison

2014 Lok Sabha elections: 56.46 percent

2019 Lok Sabha elections: 57.08 percent

Phase 6 voter turut comparison

2014 Lok Sabha elections: 57.24 percent

2019 Lok Sabha elections: 58.48 percent

Republic Double Exit Poll For West Bengal: Major Inroads Projected For BJP In Mamata Banerjee's Bastion, Trinamool Likely To Come Down From 2014 High In 2019 Lok Sabha Polls

Lok Sabha election stretched for more than one month saw heated campaigning from all parties. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi, seeking a second term in office, addressed a total of 144 rallies and roadshows this election season, Congress president Rahul Gandhi addressed 125 rallies in 2019 polls with elections also marking entry of his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra as an official member of Congress.

In Lok Sabha elections 2019, re were controversies galore over course of polls, ranging from poll violence being witnessed in each of 7 phases of voting in Bengal, to some shocking statements from leaders across parties, with likes of Azam Khan, Yogi Adityanath, Maneka Gandhi and ors being struck down on by Election Commission, and ors, like Sam Pitroda, Sadhvi Pragya and Kamal Haasan triggering mass outr. 

A number of Republic Media Network newsbreaks especially set nda for polls, including first interview of Prime Minister's election campaign to Republic's Editor-in-Chief Arnab Goswami and his final campaign interview to Executive Editor Abhishek Kapoor. Alongside se were sensational #MPsOnSale sting on sitting MPs who showed mselves willing to compromise interests of those whom y claim to represent, Operation Karz Maafi sting that exposed falsehood in Congress' farm loan-waiver promise, and numerous ors.

vote counting for 2019 Lok Sabha polls will be held on May 23. Join Arnab on Republic Media Network for n-stop cover of sensational conclusion to general elections here.

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